MOSCOW, March 16 – RIA Novosti, Dmitry Mayorov. The dollar is heading towards 72 rubles, but the risks of a strong correctional decline in the oil market and the continuing threat of an aggravation of the sanctions topic may interrupt this movement, experts interviewed by RIA Novosti say.
Therefore, the current exchange rate levels may represent a good opportunity to buy foreign currency in the medium term, they estimate.
On Monday, the ruble renewed multi-month highs against the dollar and the euro, which dropped to 72.9 rubles (minimum since December 2020) and 86.97 rubles (minimum since August 2020), respectively.
The ruble is strong fundamentally
The ruble is strengthening against the dollar for six trading sessions in a row, and there are few prerequisites for its weakening – by the end of the quarter exporters will sell foreign currency and the dollar may fall to 72.4 rubles, estimates Andrey Vernikov from Univer Capital. The baseline scenario for the euro by the end of the month is a decline to 86.5 rubles, he estimates.
In the medium term, the dollar seeks to test and then break down the support of 72 rubles, and the euro – 86 rubles, estimates Yevgeny Mironyuk from Freedom Finance.
“This will happen if oil prices remain high, there is no further growth in inflation and strong corrective sentiments in global markets. In the short term, we do not see any prerequisites for a significant change in these leading indicators for the ruble,” he adds.
The price of a barrel in rubles is still close to 5,000 rubles, but in the medium term we expect a decrease in this indicator due to the weakening of the dollar due to the “fair” assessment of the ruble at current oil prices. The growth of the trade balance of the Russian Federation will gradually contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, Mironyuk expects.
However, risks can weaken it.
However, there are still threats to the ruble, says Vernikov of Univer Capital. Estimates of the international energy agency on the oil market may cause a decline in quotations for “black gold”, which will determine the decline of the ruble, he argues.
“There is also concern that players in the foreign exchange market may take a wait-and-see attitude before the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the rate on Friday. The main threat to the ruble is new US sanctions against the Russian national debt, which may be announced in the next three weeks. In this case, the dollar will test the mark of 75 rubles or even 76.5 rubles (depending on the severity of the sanctions). In an unfavorable scenario, the euro will go to the level of 92 rubles, “said Vernikov.
The current strengthening of the ruble is provided mainly by high oil prices, which allowed to overshadow the sanctions risks, comments Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit Bank.
“However, despite all the positive, the situation looks shaky. The level of oil prices may correct downward, as it creates a bright outlook that may not materialize. The sanctions theme may also return to the number of the main drivers for the Russian currency, forcing it to weaken. Overall risk for” emerging currencies “- an increase in the basic yields of US government securities, which takes part of the capital from the economies of these countries,” – he believes.
Thus, the current high exchange rates of the ruble represent, rather, a good opportunity to buy a weakened currency – in the medium term, sums up Evstifeev.