MOSCOW, March 16 – RIA Novosti. By the end of the year, the Bank of Russia may raise the key rate by 1.25 percentage points – up to 5.5 or even 6 percent per annum, Bloomberg writes, citing a source.
The interlocutor of the agency calls the probable reasons for this decision the growth of inflation and fears about the increase in budget spending.
According to the authors of the article, such a step to strengthen monetary policy should be perceived as very decisive, since earlier the Central Bank announced its intention to maintain the current state of affairs until 2022 in order to contribute to the recovery of the Russian economy.
At the same time, the majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the key rate will be kept at the current level of 4.25 percent per annum.
Forecast for a slight increase in the rate
The head of SberCIB Investment Research Yaroslav Lisovolik suggested that the Central Bank with a high degree of probability will raise the key rate by 0.25 percentage points on Friday – up to 4.5 percent per annum.
The analyst believes that this may be due to an increase in market rates in developed countries, primarily in US Treasury bonds, as well as an increase in inflation risks. At the same time, the volatility in the ruble exchange rate is moderate, in the context of a significant increase in oil prices since the beginning of the year for the ruble. rather, there is more potential for strengthening in the coming months, “said Lisovolik.
The expert expressed confidence that the rate hike would not have a significant effect on economic activity in the context of the recovery of growth in the Russian and world economies.
Plans to return the rate to the neutral range
Last year, to overcome the consequences of the pandemic, the Central Bank for the first time used a stimulating monetary policy and brought the rate to a historic low of 4.25 percent per annum. At the same time, the weakening of the ruble and the growth in demand after the lifting of some “coronavirus” restrictions led to an increase in inflation. Because of this, the regulator paused the softening cycle in September.
At its first meeting this year, amid accelerating growth in prices, the regulator left the key rate unchanged for the fourth time in a row, but tightened the signal for future action: now the regulator will determine the timing and pace of return to neutral monetary policy.
The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said in February that in 2021-2023 it is planned to return the rate to the neutral range of five to six percent, but in the near future the policy will remain soft. At the same time, she clarified to RIA Novosti that the Central Bank does not exclude an increase in the rate already in 2021 with the economic recovery.