MOSCOW, 15 March – RIA Novosti. The unemployment rate in most regions of the Russian Federation at the end of November 2020 – January 2021 increased and amounted to 5.9% in the country as a whole, which is 1.3 points higher than a year earlier. The highest rates were recorded in Ingushetia, Chechnya and Tuva, according to a RIA Novosti study.
Impact of the pandemic
The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has put significant pressure on the labor market in Russia. The situation began to improve as the restrictions were lifted and most enterprises returned to work. At the end of November 2020 – January 2021, according to Rosstat, the number of unemployed (according to the ILO methodology) amounted to 4.46 million people, which corresponds to an unemployment rate of 5.9%. This is 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
During the pandemic, the maximum value was recorded in August 2020 – 4.8 million people (6.4%). In January, the number of unemployed was 4.3 million (5.8%).
In 2020, the number of officially registered unemployed increased significantly – at the end of January 2021, their number amounted to 2.5 million people, which is 3.6 times higher than a year earlier. It should be noted that in September last year, this figure was almost 3.7 million, after which it began to slowly decline. According to a sample survey conducted by Rosstat, in January 34.7% of the unemployed used employment services as a way to find a job.
In January, out of 4.3 million unemployed (according to the ILO methodology), 18.9% were young people under 25, which is about 810 thousand people. Compared to last August, when unemployment in Russia nearly peaked, there were over 1 million young people in this category. However, the proportion of unemployed people over the age of 50 has increased. At the end of January, in the general structure, it amounted to 20.1% – this is slightly more than 860 thousand people (against 760 thousand in August 2020). The average age of the unemployed is 37 years.
The study showed that in January 2021 it took an average of 7.1 months to find a job, with 21.7% of the unemployed looking for work for 12 months or more, almost a quarter of the unemployed (22.7%) – from three to six months. In rural areas, the situation was more complicated than in the city – 28.6% of rural unemployed were in a state of “stagnant unemployment”, that is, they had been looking for work for more than a year (in the city – 18.4%).
The average time to find a job by region in the third quarter of 2020 was 6.1 months and ranged from 2.5 to 10.1 months. The smallest time of job search is noted in such regions as St. Petersburg, where on average 2.5 months are sought for a job, the Leningrad region (3.8 months), Moscow (3.9 months). The longest period of job search is in Karachay-Cherkessia, where employment takes 10.1 months, Chechnya (10 months), North Ossetia (9.3 months).
To assess the situation in the regional context, RIA Novosti prepared a rating of the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment based on Rosstat data for November 2020-January 2021. The unemployment rate (by ILO standards) ranges from 2.5% in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug to 31.6% in Ingushetia. In 40 regions of the Russian Federation, the unemployment rate is lower than the average for Russia.
Leaders and outsiders
There have been slight changes in the top five of the rating compared to November 2019 – January 2020. According to the results of the study, the lowest unemployment rate is observed in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (2.5%). A year earlier, Moscow occupied the first line. The Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug is followed by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Yugra (3.2%), St. Petersburg (3.3%), Tatarstan (3.3%) and Moscow (3.4%). According to the results of last year's rating, the Moscow region was also in the leading group, which now occupies only the eighth position with 4%.
Compared to last year, the number of regions in which the unemployment rate is equal to or higher than 10% has increased (a year earlier there were six such regions). The most difficult situation is in Ingushetia, where the unemployment rate was 31.6%, in Chechnya – 20.6%, in Tuva – 16.9%, in Kabardino-Balkaria – 16.3%, in Dagestan – 16.3%, the republic Altai – 16.1%. According to experts, the crisis has significantly complicated the situation on the labor markets in these regions, where it has always been difficult to find a job.
At the end of November 2020 – January 2021, the unemployment rate increased in 78 Russian regions, decreased in six regions, and did not change in Yakutia compared to the corresponding period last year.
Experts believe that in 2021 the situation on the labor market can be expected to improve as the economy recovers. By the end of the year, according to their estimates, the unemployment rate may reach about 5%, while the composition of the leaders and outsiders of the rating will not undergo significant changes.