MOSCOW, 15 March – RIA Novosti. The Bank of Russia with a high degree of probability can raise the key rate by 0.25 percentage points – up to 4.5 percent per annum as early as Friday, said the head of SberCIB Investment Research Yaroslav Lisovolik.
According to him, this can be caused by an increase in market rates in developed countries, primarily in US Treasury bonds, and an increase in inflationary risks.
“The increase in rates will not have a significant effect on economic activity in the context of the recovery of growth in the Russian and global economies. At the same time, volatility in the ruble exchange rate is moderate, in the context of a significant increase in oil prices since the beginning of the year, the ruble has more potential to strengthen in the coming months,” – the expert emphasized.
Last year, to overcome the consequences of the pandemic, the regulator for the first time used a stimulating monetary policy and brought the rate to a historic low of 4.25 percent per annum. At the same time, the weakening of the ruble and the growth in demand after the lifting of some “coronavirus” restrictions led to an increase in inflation. Because of this, the regulator paused the softening cycle in September.
At its first meeting this year, amid accelerated price increases, the Central Bank left the key rate unchanged for the fourth time in a row, but tightened the signal for future action: now the regulator will determine the timing and pace of returning to a neutral monetary policy. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said in February that in 2021-2023 it is planned to return the rate to the neutral range of five to six percent, but in the near future the policy will remain soft. At the same time, she clarified to RIA Novosti that the Central Bank does not exclude an increase in the rate already in 2021 with the economic recovery.