Experts assessed the level of recession of the Russian economy in a pandemic

MOSCOW, 5 March – RIA Novosti. For the first time in the entire post-Soviet period, Russia experienced a milder recession than the world as a whole, despite the fact that a strong drop in oil prices was combined with the global crisis, according to the Bulletin Comments on State and Business, prepared by the Institute for Development Center of the Higher School economy. “At the end of 2020, a decrease in Russian GDP of 3.1% was recorded. This is slightly worse than the result of the crisis in 2015 (minus 2%), but much better than 2009 (minus 7.8%). the strongest recession in the world economy since the middle of the 20th century (minus 3.5% according to preliminary estimates of the International Monetary Fund): for the first time in the entire post-Soviet period, Russia experienced a softer recession than the world as a whole, despite the fact that a strong drop in oil prices was combined with the global crisis “, – the document says.

The authors point out that the implementation of the fiscal rule and the implementation of inflation targeting policies helped prepare for the unique crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The anti-crisis measures taken by the state have significantly softened the fall of the Russian economy, they write.

“The impact of the pandemic on GDP dynamics is, of course, greater than the indicated 3.1% decline. The baseline scenario of the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, like our consensus forecast, prepared respectively in September and October 2019, assumed the growth of the Russian economy by 1.7% in 2020. Thus, in 2020, the crisis worsened the dynamics of GDP by about 4.7 percentage points, and if it were not for government support measures, the negative effect, according to our estimates, would have amounted to about 7-8 percentage points of growth GDP compared to the scenario without a pandemic, “the HSE believes.

The impact of the epidemiological crisis on the Russian economy manifested itself through several main channels: a decrease in consumer and investment activity due to restrictive measures, a significant drop in export volumes, a decrease in oil prices, follows from the review.

Author: wedocount

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *