MOSCOW, February 27 – RIA Novosti. Analysts of the credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings have listed three key risks that may affect the rating prospects of Russia, writes RBC with reference to the company's presentation.
Thus, the list includes toughening of Western sanctions, a weakening of the macro-political structure, as well as the transit of power and internal political volatility.
As Karen Vartapetov, a leading analyst on the sovereign ratings of the CIS countries, explained, the current credit rating of Russia already takes into account the “moderate tightening of sanctions” by the United States. In his opinion, such extreme measures as a ban on trading in Russian sovereign debt on the secondary market are not expected. At the same time, the United States will try to avoid using the dollar as a weapon in the global financial system.
The agency believes that negative scenarios will also be restrained by the focus of US President Joe Biden on restoring relations with allies, as well as close ties between Russia and the EU in the field of energy. According to Evgenia Sleptsova, senior economist at the British Oxford Economics, possible new measures will not greatly affect the Russian economy or its sovereign debt.
She noted that experts do not expect US sanctions to be tougher than European ones, so their impact will be “negligible.”
Last week S&P Global Ratings affirmed Russia's long-term foreign currency rating at 'BBB-' investment grade. The forecast, as noted, is stable. The international rating agency Fitch, for its part, also affirmed Russia's rating at “BBB”. Fitch noted that a sound fiscal strategy, as well as exchange rate flexibility and targeted inflation, are helping to make Russia more resilient to shocks.