MOSCOW, 18 Feb – RIA Novosti. More than 30 credit institutions may lose their license in 2021, according to the banking sector health index of the Expert RA rating agency. The study reflects the agency's opinion on the percentage of banks that will not default over the next 12 months.
It is noted that the risk is associated with the outflow of funds of Russians from deposits and the economy that has not recovered from the pandemic.
“An index value of 91 percent as of January 1, 2021 means that up to 33 credit institutions (9 percent of the index's calculation base) are in a high-risk zone at the horizon of 2021,” the study says.
Analysts expressed the opinion that consolidation of the banking sector is expected this year, in particular, due to the withdrawal from the market of insufficiently efficient banks and the takeover of credit institutions by larger players. In addition, voluntary license revocations are predicted among small credit institutions without a specific business model and market niche.
Thus, experts say, the health index of the banking sector is likely to continue to strengthen, but will not show high growth rates until the full recovery of economic activity and the adaptation of banks to the changed market situation.