MOSCOW, February 7 – RIA Novosti. Most currencies are susceptible to weakening amid the central banks' buyout of assets and lower key rates. Even traditional safe-haven currencies, for example, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, are subject to this risk, Mikhail Kogan, head of analytical research at the Higher School of Financial Management, told Prime. the coming months, which can be observed against any of them. For example, the consensus forecast of investment banks on the EUR / USD rate suggests its growth to 1.25 this year (now it is 1.21), “he said.
On the other hand, the ECB spent more on asset purchases than the United States, if we consider the numbers in relation to the volume of GDP. In addition, the eurozone economy has been hit harder by the pandemic than the US economy. Therefore, the euro is one of the most likely candidates for weakening.
Not everything is unambiguous with safe-haven currencies, which grow during a period of risks. If the economy, as many hope, begins to actively recover, funds from the Japanese yen and Swiss franc could be transferred to riskier assets. Difficulties are also possible for the British pound, which may sink for some time due to the prospect of the introduction of negative rates by the Bank of England amid Brexit.
On the contrary, the Chinese yuan and the ruble have good chances of strengthening. The latter may strengthen if the sanctions risks do not materialize, and oil prices continue to rise, Kogan concluded.