MOSCOW, February 7 – RIA Novosti. The dollar exchange rate by the end of February – in early March, it may drop to 72.5-73 rubles, provided that oil prices remain at current levels and possible new anti-Russian sanctions will be personal, not sectoral, an expert on the stock market told RIA Novosti ” BCS World of investments “Dmitry Babin.
On Friday, the dollar fell below 75 rubles for the first time since January 27. The dollar last reached the mark of 73 rubles on December 17, and 72.5 rubles at the end of July 2020.
“The influence on the ruble will continue to be exerted by the geopolitical situation. While there are good signs that the new anti-Russian sanctions will be personal in nature and will not harm entire sectors of the economy and business. If these expectations are justified, and Brent quotes at least remain near the current levels of 58-59 dollars , the dollar by the end of February – at the beginning of March may drop to the area of 72.5-73 rubles “, – the expert predicts.
According to him, a decrease in the volume of foreign currency purchases within the framework of the budgetary rule is unlikely to significantly affect the exchange rate, since the scale of these operations is insignificant relative to the total volume of trading, and the conjuncture of the world markets, especially the oil market, will continue to play the main role in the dynamics of the ruble.
“In January, the ruble price of a barrel of Brent returned to economically feasible levels above 4000 rubles, which are more comfortable in terms of income for the state budget and exporters. Thus, the overvaluation of the ruble against oil, which was observed for most of last year, has disappeared and now it will win back more actively further growth of oil prices, and in case of their decline, if it does not bear a catastrophic character, react with restraint to this negative, “Babin said.
The Ministry of Finance this week announced that the volume of foreign currency purchases in the period from February 5 to March 4, 2021 will amount to 45.6 billion rubles, an amount equivalent to 2.4 billion rubles will be allocated daily for these purposes. In January, for the first time since March last year, the ministry returned to buying foreign currency – in the period from January 15 to February 4, 106.3 billion rubles (7.1 billion rubles a day) were provided for these purposes. Thus, daily purchases of foreign currency should be reduced by almost three times.